Things we learned about mma since the last time we posted; Joanna Jedrzejczyk can at times channel Chuck Liddell, RDA is an even more terrifying monster than we all thought, you don’t boo Al Iaquinta unless you're ready for some of that East Coast attitude, and you’re allowed to bring a hatchet into the Octagon so long as you disguise it as Mirko Cro Cop’s elbows.
Tonight, however, we take that ride across the river to the Jersey side as the UFC returns to Newark, NJ in a night of prospects versus veterans. Many of the up-and-coming fighters on this card will be facing their toughest tests yet as the more established crop will seek to show that they can still mix it up with the young go-hards invading the ranks of every division.
I’m predicting a 4-2 split in favor of the prospects (the veteran versus prospect fights being defined here as Mizugaki versus Sterling, Saint Preux versus Cummins, Miller versus Dariush, Herrig versus VanZant, Swanson versus Holloway, and Machida versus Rockhold). No matter which way they go I’m looking forward to tough, competitive fights from bottom to top.
Starting at the bottom, I expect Aljamain Sterling to get it done against Takeya Mizugaki by decision. I like Sterling because he shows better fight IQ than most prospects. Along with his athleticism and offensive ability, this should be enough to overcome the superior experience of Mizugaki. That being said, this is a definite test for the Longo-Serra student, and a very dangerous fight.
Not much to say about the next fight. Anderson should be able to take advantage of Villante’s notoriously bad striking defense, as well as bully him in the clinch. Anderson by decision.
Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) versus Patrick Cummins is a little more complicated to call. While Cummins should be about to get the fight to the ground and control St. Preux once he’s there, OSP has has shown an aptitude for landing low-percentage maneuvers with great success. Too bad he doesn’t show the same aptitude for bread-and-butter striking and wrestling. Hard to call, but I’ll go with Cummins by decision.
I’m a little more confident in picking Beneil Dariush over Jim Miller, but not by much. You don’t get to be a stalwart of the Lightweight division for as long as Jim Miller has unless you are one seriously bad mofo. Miller is one of the toughest men in the Ocatagon, but Beneil Dariush is a serial killer on a rampage. Between his highly effective boxing and submission game I expect Dariush to get the finish, or if not, to carry away a decision victory.
Moving up to the main card, the momentum shifts slightly towards the veterans.
WCL veteran Felice Herrig is like the Michael Bisping of the Women’s Strawweight division; a jack off all trades, ace of none. She can hit you with hard clean shots on the feet, but probably won’t know you out. She can dominate in the clinch or smother you out on the mat, and she’ll lay some ground-n-pound on you, but again, she probably won’t stop the fight. At this point in her career, I don’t think that the still-raw Paige VanZant has the skills to get past her. Herrig by decision.
The next fight should be a barn-burner, as Cub Swanson takes on Max Halloway. Both fighters have an aggressive style, and both have the ability to put a quick hurting on their opponents. Expect a tough, gritty bloodbath, with Swanson just barely edging out Halloway. High potential for a finish.
Also, “Jacare” Souza will most likely finish Chris Camozzi again. On less than two weeks notice, there is nothing to make me think that Camozzi will do any better this time than he did the last time. I’m still bitter that we lost Yoel Romero in this fight.
The main event is a coin flip every time, as far as I’m concerned, as well as a definite Fight of the Year contender. I’ve been looking forward to this one ever since it was announced, so instead of straining to put every possible thought and angle down on paper, I’m just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy a high-level martial arts contest between two of my favorite fighters.
As usual, you can chill with @KevJMahon via twitter during the fights.
Hands up, protect yourself at all times, don’t you fucking dare boo us here at Rabbit Punch!
Saturday, April 18, 2015
Saturday, March 14, 2015
UFC 185 Main Card Preview
We’re just hours away from UFC 185 main card. The favorites all look good, of course, but the underdogs are coming hard tonight. Kevin J will be kickin’ it on twitter during the fights, and he just wants to kick it, just wants to kick it with you @KevJMahon.
Headlining the undercard are Ross Pearson (-430) and Sam “Hand of Stone” Stout (+380). I have my concerns about Stout’s chin after more than 30 professional fights, but the octagon veteran still has the power to stop Pearson.
Now that Henry Cejudo (-750) has made weight and looked good doing it, Chris Cariaso (+600) is going to have his work cut out for him in the first bout of the main card. I’m liking Cejudo to get the win almost as much as everyone else is, so maybe place a small bet on Cariaso at 6-to-1 and don’t expect to get it back.
Moving on, Alistair Overeem (-145) is the more technically skilled attacker, but his suspect chin leaves him open to Big Country’s (+135) heavy hands. Expect a short affair, one way or the other.
Johny Hendricks (-425) is hungry for a chance to get his title back, but he may run into a roadblock in Matt Brown (+378). Brown is one of the toughest men in the UFC, having never been knocked out in 31 pro fights. If it comes down to technique, give it to Hendricks, but if it comes down to heart, Brown could come away with it. Both men have a heavy-handed style, so expect a slugfest.
The first title fight of the evening pits challenger Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+130) against champion Carla Esparza (-150). I think that Carla is much more dominant here than the oddsmakers are giving her credit for. There’s no doubt that Joanna has been bringing the heat in the pre-fight leadup, but if there’s one thing that we know about the champ, it’s that she’s a serious scrapper. Expect an intense, competitive fight, but also expect Jedrzejczyk to be put through the woodchipper by the end of it.
Topping off the main card is the Lightweight title bout between challenger Rafael Dos Anjos (+450) and champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (-525). Dos Anjos had evolved into an absolute monster, and is more of a threat than the odds reflect. All the same, Pretty Tony is one of the most dynamic and offensively gifted fighters that the 155lbs weightclass has ever seen.
Don’t get it twisted, I’m picking the favorites across the board tonight, but I’m also calling for at least 2 upsets tonight between the main card and the Pearson/Stout fight.
If you’re brave, RDA and Matt Brown could make you money tonight. Otherwise, just throw your favorite favorites into a parley or two. Don’t forget about Duffey and li’l Pettis on the prelims.
Keep your hands up, protect yourself at all times, and come back next time for the next Rabbit Punch!
Above odds from 5Dimes as reported by bestfightodds.com at the time this article was posted
Headlining the undercard are Ross Pearson (-430) and Sam “Hand of Stone” Stout (+380). I have my concerns about Stout’s chin after more than 30 professional fights, but the octagon veteran still has the power to stop Pearson.
Now that Henry Cejudo (-750) has made weight and looked good doing it, Chris Cariaso (+600) is going to have his work cut out for him in the first bout of the main card. I’m liking Cejudo to get the win almost as much as everyone else is, so maybe place a small bet on Cariaso at 6-to-1 and don’t expect to get it back.
Moving on, Alistair Overeem (-145) is the more technically skilled attacker, but his suspect chin leaves him open to Big Country’s (+135) heavy hands. Expect a short affair, one way or the other.
Johny Hendricks (-425) is hungry for a chance to get his title back, but he may run into a roadblock in Matt Brown (+378). Brown is one of the toughest men in the UFC, having never been knocked out in 31 pro fights. If it comes down to technique, give it to Hendricks, but if it comes down to heart, Brown could come away with it. Both men have a heavy-handed style, so expect a slugfest.
The first title fight of the evening pits challenger Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+130) against champion Carla Esparza (-150). I think that Carla is much more dominant here than the oddsmakers are giving her credit for. There’s no doubt that Joanna has been bringing the heat in the pre-fight leadup, but if there’s one thing that we know about the champ, it’s that she’s a serious scrapper. Expect an intense, competitive fight, but also expect Jedrzejczyk to be put through the woodchipper by the end of it.
Topping off the main card is the Lightweight title bout between challenger Rafael Dos Anjos (+450) and champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (-525). Dos Anjos had evolved into an absolute monster, and is more of a threat than the odds reflect. All the same, Pretty Tony is one of the most dynamic and offensively gifted fighters that the 155lbs weightclass has ever seen.
Don’t get it twisted, I’m picking the favorites across the board tonight, but I’m also calling for at least 2 upsets tonight between the main card and the Pearson/Stout fight.
If you’re brave, RDA and Matt Brown could make you money tonight. Otherwise, just throw your favorite favorites into a parley or two. Don’t forget about Duffey and li’l Pettis on the prelims.
Keep your hands up, protect yourself at all times, and come back next time for the next Rabbit Punch!
Above odds from 5Dimes as reported by bestfightodds.com at the time this article was posted
Friday, December 5, 2014
. . .
Rabbit Punch Sports blog is down for the remainder of 2014 for retooling. Kevin J will continue to tweet (@KevinJMahon) and write short dispatches for our sister blog Rabbit Punch Politics from his barstool overlooking the Gulf Coast while he convalesces. We hope to have him back at the start of 2015. Otherwise we plan to take him out back and shoot him like a lame horse.
Saturday, September 6, 2014
UFC 177 Recap
I was one of the few to pay to watch UFC 177 live, because those were my plans that night and because a night spent watching live fights is rarely wasted. For the most part, the event did not disappoint. I’m going to run though this shortened card very quickly before talking about some of the pre-fight issues.
Chris Wade choked out Cain Carrizosa after a brief and exciting wrestling match.
Anthony Hamilton got a stoppage over Ruan Potts due to Potts’ complete inactivity on the ground. Hamilton dropped about 20 arm punches onto literally the exact same spot on Potts’ ribs, with Potts offering no defense, no movement, absolutely no reaction whatsoever. After several warning from referee Steven Davis, the fight was called.
Derek Brunson avoided the hands of a very dangerous striker in Lorenz Larkin, who could not stop Brunson from taking him down and smothering out a decision.
Yancy Medeiros put on a great fight against Damon Jackson, ending with what they’re calling a reverse bulldog choke.
Ramsey Nijem came out strong against Carlos Diego Ferreira, only to be let down once more by his glass chin. Just like in Mike Tyson’s Punchout, the 3rd knockdown was the last.
After escaping a dangerous submission attempt in round 1, Bethe Correia put Shayna Baszler against the fence and hit her so hard that Baszler forgot how to circle out. Then she kept hitting her until Big John McCarthy recognized that Baszler was out on her feet and would not fall down. TKO 2 minutes into the second round.
In the only decision of the main card, Team Alpha Male product Danny Castillo tried to lay-and-pray a win in front of a hometown crowd, but the judges liked Tony Ferguson’s activity and offense better.
The main card featured not the instant rematch between TJ Dillashaw and Renan Barao, but rather TJ defending his belt against Bellator and Tachi Palace champ Joe Soto, who was scheduled to make his UFC debut on the undercard that day. Barao reportedly fainted and hit his head on the bathtub in the course of his final weight cut, taking him out of the fight and moving Soto up on little more and 1 day’s notice.
The bathtub was given $50k and a motorcycle.
As I’ve said, I don’t like how it happened, but I do like that both men will be given time to evolve their game before meeting again. I also don’t like UFC president Dana White sending Barao home without a paycheck. Just a few short months ago the UFC was hyping this guy as the #1 pound-for-pound. Today, he’s persona non grata.
It’s the economy, stupid. Barao is one of the best fighters on the UFC roster, but also one of the least promotable, and that gave Dana bleeding ulcers. Promotional lighting struck when TJ Dillashaw, the golden-haired kid from Cali, took the belt in spectacular fashion. The UFC got greedy and tried to make lightning strike twice. They were determined to get their money out of Barao, even if it meant subjecting him to another beating before he was ready. Withholding his purse was their parting shot when their plans fell through.
Joe and TJ gave us a great fight. Both men showed good head movement and defense, particularly Soto, who showed some of the best striking defense in the UFC, and largely neutralized TJ’s flurries. That is, until he caught a head kick that dropped him like someone had cut his puppet strings. TJ faked left, quickly adjusted his footing, and blasted a right kick though Soto’s defense as he circled away from the feign. End of the night.
TJ’s striking pace is inhuman, and most of his shots are power shots, right up until the end. His awareness of distance and timing combine with his use of angles and footwork to make him one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC. Just like in the Barao fight, TJ’s hands were down whenever Soto wasn’t throwing, and up whenever he was. Nearly every aspect of his striking game has evolved under the tutelage of coach Dwayne “Bang” Ludwig. This is the result of an uncommonly talented fighter meeting an uncommonly talented coach.
While these fights delivered, you wouldn’t know it to look at the numbers. The chatter around the internet was already negative before Barao withdrew; afterwards it was downright nasty. The UFC has no one to blame but themselves. They have been watering down their content, and it shows. The sheer number of fights that they need to put on in order to fulfill their deal with Fox Sports is a big part of the problem, but the UFC management also likes to spread out their money fights in order to get people to purchase more events throughout the year. Dana may rant and rave when things like this happen, but that’s only because he knows that it was the UFC’s own decisions that made it possible.
After getting burned so many times, maybe White, Fertitta, and Silva will learn to stop sticking their nose where it hurts, and focus on rebuilding levels of respect for the brand in 2015. Stacking PPV cards is a great way to start.
The next event I’ll be watching live is Invicta FC 8 later tonight. Fight Pass was already a good deal, and getting free live Invicta cards is a nice bonus. We here at Rabbit Punch have always been big supporters of WMMA, and have been following Invicta FC since the start. Shannon Knapp has built a fantastic product, and a showcase for female talent at every weight class.
Tonight’s event will be the first with veteran fighter and commentator Julie Kedzie in her new role as matchmaker. Kedzie has been getting down since MMA was called NHB, and commentated Invicta FC 1 with Mauro Ranallo and “King Mo” Lawal. She brings us an exciting fight card tonight, which I will one day recap, probably once you’ve already forgotten about it.
Until then, keep those hands up and defend yourself at all times, and keep coming back for more Rabbit Punch!
Chris Wade choked out Cain Carrizosa after a brief and exciting wrestling match.
Anthony Hamilton got a stoppage over Ruan Potts due to Potts’ complete inactivity on the ground. Hamilton dropped about 20 arm punches onto literally the exact same spot on Potts’ ribs, with Potts offering no defense, no movement, absolutely no reaction whatsoever. After several warning from referee Steven Davis, the fight was called.
Derek Brunson avoided the hands of a very dangerous striker in Lorenz Larkin, who could not stop Brunson from taking him down and smothering out a decision.
Yancy Medeiros put on a great fight against Damon Jackson, ending with what they’re calling a reverse bulldog choke.
Ramsey Nijem came out strong against Carlos Diego Ferreira, only to be let down once more by his glass chin. Just like in Mike Tyson’s Punchout, the 3rd knockdown was the last.
After escaping a dangerous submission attempt in round 1, Bethe Correia put Shayna Baszler against the fence and hit her so hard that Baszler forgot how to circle out. Then she kept hitting her until Big John McCarthy recognized that Baszler was out on her feet and would not fall down. TKO 2 minutes into the second round.
In the only decision of the main card, Team Alpha Male product Danny Castillo tried to lay-and-pray a win in front of a hometown crowd, but the judges liked Tony Ferguson’s activity and offense better.
The main card featured not the instant rematch between TJ Dillashaw and Renan Barao, but rather TJ defending his belt against Bellator and Tachi Palace champ Joe Soto, who was scheduled to make his UFC debut on the undercard that day. Barao reportedly fainted and hit his head on the bathtub in the course of his final weight cut, taking him out of the fight and moving Soto up on little more and 1 day’s notice.
The bathtub was given $50k and a motorcycle.
As I’ve said, I don’t like how it happened, but I do like that both men will be given time to evolve their game before meeting again. I also don’t like UFC president Dana White sending Barao home without a paycheck. Just a few short months ago the UFC was hyping this guy as the #1 pound-for-pound. Today, he’s persona non grata.
It’s the economy, stupid. Barao is one of the best fighters on the UFC roster, but also one of the least promotable, and that gave Dana bleeding ulcers. Promotional lighting struck when TJ Dillashaw, the golden-haired kid from Cali, took the belt in spectacular fashion. The UFC got greedy and tried to make lightning strike twice. They were determined to get their money out of Barao, even if it meant subjecting him to another beating before he was ready. Withholding his purse was their parting shot when their plans fell through.
Joe and TJ gave us a great fight. Both men showed good head movement and defense, particularly Soto, who showed some of the best striking defense in the UFC, and largely neutralized TJ’s flurries. That is, until he caught a head kick that dropped him like someone had cut his puppet strings. TJ faked left, quickly adjusted his footing, and blasted a right kick though Soto’s defense as he circled away from the feign. End of the night.
TJ’s striking pace is inhuman, and most of his shots are power shots, right up until the end. His awareness of distance and timing combine with his use of angles and footwork to make him one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC. Just like in the Barao fight, TJ’s hands were down whenever Soto wasn’t throwing, and up whenever he was. Nearly every aspect of his striking game has evolved under the tutelage of coach Dwayne “Bang” Ludwig. This is the result of an uncommonly talented fighter meeting an uncommonly talented coach.
While these fights delivered, you wouldn’t know it to look at the numbers. The chatter around the internet was already negative before Barao withdrew; afterwards it was downright nasty. The UFC has no one to blame but themselves. They have been watering down their content, and it shows. The sheer number of fights that they need to put on in order to fulfill their deal with Fox Sports is a big part of the problem, but the UFC management also likes to spread out their money fights in order to get people to purchase more events throughout the year. Dana may rant and rave when things like this happen, but that’s only because he knows that it was the UFC’s own decisions that made it possible.
After getting burned so many times, maybe White, Fertitta, and Silva will learn to stop sticking their nose where it hurts, and focus on rebuilding levels of respect for the brand in 2015. Stacking PPV cards is a great way to start.
The next event I’ll be watching live is Invicta FC 8 later tonight. Fight Pass was already a good deal, and getting free live Invicta cards is a nice bonus. We here at Rabbit Punch have always been big supporters of WMMA, and have been following Invicta FC since the start. Shannon Knapp has built a fantastic product, and a showcase for female talent at every weight class.
Tonight’s event will be the first with veteran fighter and commentator Julie Kedzie in her new role as matchmaker. Kedzie has been getting down since MMA was called NHB, and commentated Invicta FC 1 with Mauro Ranallo and “King Mo” Lawal. She brings us an exciting fight card tonight, which I will one day recap, probably once you’ve already forgotten about it.
Until then, keep those hands up and defend yourself at all times, and keep coming back for more Rabbit Punch!
Friday, September 5, 2014
The Fighter Who Wouldn't Fight
If Alexander Gustafsson is determined to sit and wait for another title shot, I hope that he gets past over for more active fighters. Welcome back to the Rabbit Punch.
Seriously, who the fuck is Alexander Gustafsson? Since losing to Jones, Gussy has fought exactly once, defeating Jimi Manuwa on a UFC Fight Night card.
Don't get me wrong, I do believe that Gustafsson's performance against Jones has earned him a a rematch down the road, but this isn’t “play until you win.” If you fail to grasp the brass ring when you have the chance, you fall back to earth and have to fight your way back up again.
Give the next shot to AJ and don’t ever even think of taking a pay-per-view to Sweden until after we have a Swedish champ.
This has been the Rabbit Punch.
Seriously, who the fuck is Alexander Gustafsson? Since losing to Jones, Gussy has fought exactly once, defeating Jimi Manuwa on a UFC Fight Night card.
Don't get me wrong, I do believe that Gustafsson's performance against Jones has earned him a a rematch down the road, but this isn’t “play until you win.” If you fail to grasp the brass ring when you have the chance, you fall back to earth and have to fight your way back up again.
Give the next shot to AJ and don’t ever even think of taking a pay-per-view to Sweden until after we have a Swedish champ.
This has been the Rabbit Punch.
Friday, August 29, 2014
UFC 177: Never trust the. . .odds.
I don’t like how it happened, but I do like the fact that the #1 contender spot has opened up at 135lbs.
Renan Barao has been hospitalized after losing consciousness in his hotel room the day before his scheduled rematch with TJ Dillashaw, prompting the last-minute substitution of Joe Soto. Former Bellator and current Tachi Palace champ Joe Soto, who was scheduled to make his UFC debut against fellow newcomer Anthony Birchak, was raised from the prelims to a title shot on one day’s notice. Birchak was removed from the card.
I’m much more interested in seeing Barao rematch Dillashaw once both men have had the chance to evolve their games. If they can each stack up a couple more wins, the rematch will carry greater momentum. Right now, Dillashaw clearly has Barao’s number. I don’t have much interest in seeing the same fight over again. The first time was unexpected and triumphant. Doing it again so soon just feels like humping after completion.
I’m glad that we’ll get the opportunity to see what Dillashaw can do against some of the top talent at Bantamweight, if and when he gets past Soto. Can TJ adapt to Raphael Assuncao’s heavy hands after his previous split decision loss? How will his speed and timing match up against Takeya Mizugaki’s? Former champ Dominic Cruz is also back in the mix, and just typing that sentence makes me want to watch Cruz and Dillashaw mix it up. I’d also like to see Barao take some time to see to his health, and only return when he is truly ready to be the Barao that looked unbeatable just a few months ago.
Keep your hands up, protect yourself at all times, and kick it with Rabbit Punch on twitter @Kevjmahon during UFC 177 tomorrow night.
Renan Barao has been hospitalized after losing consciousness in his hotel room the day before his scheduled rematch with TJ Dillashaw, prompting the last-minute substitution of Joe Soto. Former Bellator and current Tachi Palace champ Joe Soto, who was scheduled to make his UFC debut against fellow newcomer Anthony Birchak, was raised from the prelims to a title shot on one day’s notice. Birchak was removed from the card.
I’m much more interested in seeing Barao rematch Dillashaw once both men have had the chance to evolve their games. If they can each stack up a couple more wins, the rematch will carry greater momentum. Right now, Dillashaw clearly has Barao’s number. I don’t have much interest in seeing the same fight over again. The first time was unexpected and triumphant. Doing it again so soon just feels like humping after completion.
I’m glad that we’ll get the opportunity to see what Dillashaw can do against some of the top talent at Bantamweight, if and when he gets past Soto. Can TJ adapt to Raphael Assuncao’s heavy hands after his previous split decision loss? How will his speed and timing match up against Takeya Mizugaki’s? Former champ Dominic Cruz is also back in the mix, and just typing that sentence makes me want to watch Cruz and Dillashaw mix it up. I’d also like to see Barao take some time to see to his health, and only return when he is truly ready to be the Barao that looked unbeatable just a few months ago.
Keep your hands up, protect yourself at all times, and kick it with Rabbit Punch on twitter @Kevjmahon during UFC 177 tomorrow night.
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
. . .
A new post is coming soon. I promise I'm not just keeping my head down because I was so wrong about Dillashaw. I'm just a lazy a-hole.
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