UFC Fight Night 27 is behind us, and all of us here at Rabbit Punch are preparing for UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis. Between the Wednesday night Fight Nights and the pay-per-view event tonight, the UFC is putting on 35 fights in the space of just 10 days. The fact that we have the talent and the fighters to put on that many UFC-quality matches illustrates just how much the sport has grown and evolved, even just in the past few years. It’s a good time to be a fight fan, folks!
Tonight’s pay-per-view will take place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a state sometimes overlooked in the world of combat sports. I, however, will be watching this one from the comfort of my own home, surrounded by about half a dozen friends and exactly 52 rectangular pieces of paper. I know that all the world is wet over Texas Hold ‘em these days, but I still prefer a nice straight game of 5 Card Draw any night of the week.
But forget the action on the table, you’re here for the action in the cage! I am legitimately excited about this Pettis / Bendo fight. It’s one of those real wildcard fights, and both of these guys are so dynamic and so talented that I have no idea how it’s going to go down, except that it should be a thriller.
Pettis defeated Smooth Ben Hendo back in 2010 for the WEC Lightweight belt, pulling off the now-famous Showtime Kick late in the final round, and really just making Hendo look foolish. Three years later, and Smooth Ben is the UFC Lightweight champ, going 7-0 against some of the biggest names at 155 since his loss to Pettis. Pettis has gone 3-1 in the same time period, against a somewhat lower caliber of competition. Bendo has a myriad of factors going in his favor, including experience, athleticism, and adaptability, but somehow, my head is telling me that Pettis is going walk away with this one.
But my heart still says Bendo.
Outside of the main event, the UFC matchmakers have stacked the card with close, interesting matchups all evening long, including Chico Camus vs Kyung Ho Kang and Louis Gaudinot vs Tim Elliott.
I'm taking Kyung by submission, unless he gets caught with a lucky shot. Chico Camus is not exactly the world's best striker, but he should be just better than Kang.
Likewise, Tim Elliott should be able to put away Louis Gaudinot, but it's far from a sure thing. Elliot has the reach advantage and is the technically better striker, but we've seen him fall flat before, and Gaudinot’s explosive, almost reckless style sometimes results in a big win which he could not necessarily have gotten by grinding away.
Aside from those, we also have Rothwell vs Vera, Koch vs Poirier, and Varner vs Tibau, all of which have the potential to be great slobber-knockers with more offense than defense. The kinds of fights casual fans love.
Also on the card are old favorites Frank Mir, taking on Josh Barnett, and Clay Guida, taking on Chad Mendes.
Guida could be in serious trouble against the monstrous Chad Mendes, who’s only professional loss is to current UFC Featherweight champ Jose Aldo. While we’ve seen a more measured, controlled Guida as his career has gone one, I think that this passivity will be a liability against Mendes. Allowing Mendes to set the pace and run his game-plan will result in Mendes’ superior skills in each individual area picking Guida apart and putting him away. Guida needs to find some way to take the initiative early and change up the fight, or else I don't think that he's going to be able to hurt Mendes in a meaningful way.
Moving on, I’m actually a little surprised that Frank Mir is still fighting, not because he’s not still top 10, but just because he’s been doing this for so long. Props to the guy for keeping it going.
Mir is definitely the superior submission artist in this fight, but Barnett is the stronger wrestler, and has a history of steroid use. I really can’t give much respect to a guy after that, but if he can avoid Mir’s jujitsu, Barnett should have the tools to grind out a win by decision here. That said, I’ll be pulling for Mir by submission.
A word or two on the betting lines. Early on, I was going to throw out Jared Hamman in the first prelim as a potential dog play, but the line had moved since then, so now I’m less sure. He’ll probably still walk away with it, but the return is less attractive. Then again, it’s not like there are many fights on this card that can be picked with any sort of confidence, and none which offer anything close to even money.
I’ve already picked the Mendes/Guida fight for Mendes, but with Guida giving a return of +400 right now, you’d be a fool not to put down just a little juice. Guida is smart enough and good enough to maybe pull the upset here, and if he gets lucky, it could pay off for an adventurous play.
But make it a small play, all the same.
Mir might also be undervalued, if you’re looking for a third dog play tonight. All the fights are so close and the favorites are so overvalued that dog may be the only way to go.
That’s it for now, we’ll have a recap tomorrow, if I can get it out in time. Don't forget to follow us on twitter during the event at @kevjmahon.
Until then, keep those hands up and protect yourself at all times, this has been the Rabbit Punch!
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