Demetrious Johnson v John Dodson- Johnson by decision.
Andre Arlovski v Frank Mir- Ten years after it was supposed to happen, two resurgent veterans with a historic tendency for flash knockouts will clash. I'm calling Rock 'em Sock 'em Robots rules on this one; whoever touches the chin first,
Anthony Johnson v Jimi Manuwa- Johnson by knockout.
Jan Błachowicz v Corey Anderson- Who knows, who cares?
Paige VanZant v Alex Chambers- The betting lines on this one are out of control, but I fully expect VanZant to get it done through pure athleticism. Chambers could still pull out a surprise submission.
Saturday, September 5, 2015
Saturday, July 11, 2015
UFC 189
UFC 189 is finally almost upon us, minus the much-hyped featherweight title fight between champion Jose Aldo and challenger Coner McGregor. Instead, McGregor is fighting featherweight standout Chad Mendes, who has already challenged Aldo twice and lost.
I am personally thrilled with the switch. McGregor has advanced mainly through the strength of his promotability, and has never even fought a top 5 fighter on his way to the belt. Conor is a gifted striker, but so far he has only knocked down guys who were set up for him. If he can beat an iron-chinned wrestler like Mendes, then he will have proved that he deserves to be in the cage with Aldo.
If Mendes wins, however, it will be a nightmare for the UFC. They will have lost much of the heat that they built up for the eventual Aldo/McGregor fight, and there is little interest among fans in seeing Mendes fight Aldo a third time. The kicker is that Mendes may have an even better chance against McGregor than Aldo did. Aldo is a Muay Thai specialist who will engage with Conor on the feet, while Mendes will be looking to stifle his opponent’s offense and dominate him with superior wrestling. Add to this the fact that Chad Mendes has only ever been finished by Jose Aldo throughout his professional career and we see that McGregor’s reach and power will be put to the test tonight.
Waiting in the wings are Frankie Edgar, who has been on a win streak since his loss to Aldo in 2013, and Ricardo Lamas, who since 2011 has lost to only Aldo and Mendes.
Noticing a pattern? Jose Aldo has not only already beaten the top talent in his weight class, he has also gone undefeated since 2005 for a total of 18 wins in a row. Aldo is undefeated in the UFC, having come over with the WEC lightweight belt around his waist. In the UFC, Aldo has defended once or twice per year, and defends on average more than most current UFC champions.
Which is why it is so backwards and wrong that the UFC is making tonight’s main event an interim title match. The decision is based off of promotional concerns and personal issues, without any semblance of integrity or fairness. This encapsulates the way that the UFC has handled this fight from the start.
The UFC has spent too many resources on promoting this fight to pull McGregor, or to water down the main event. That’s fine, but an interim title is completely inappropriate in this situation. Jose Aldo has defended his title within the last 12 months, and will return from his injury along a predictable timeline. No interim title was created when TJ Dillashaw dropped out of the Barao rematch with a broken rib, and his last title defense came two months before Aldo’s.
The way that the UFC handled Aldo’s injury was most troubling of all. The UFC did not call off the fight after doctors diagnosed the broken rib via CAT scan. Instead, UFC President Dana White insisted that Aldo had suffered a cartilage bruise, and that Aldo would still fight. The champion seemed ready to go along at first, but a few day later the announcement came from Aldo’s camp that Jose was dropping the fight due to a broken rib. Mendes was called up on about two weeks notice.
White continues to insist that Aldo’s rib is not broken, but I’m inclined to believe that the first set of doctors got their diagnosis right the first time. A broken rib is not hard to diagnose, especially with a sophisticated medical scan such as a CAT scan. A bruise is not easily mistaken for a break on medical imaging, because a bruise is diagnosed in the absence of evidence of a break. If the first set of doctors saw a break on CAT scan, then there was and is a break. An x-ray alone could have told you this. Dana is famous for shooting off his mouth, but this time he’s screwing with a fighter’s health and professional reputation. Even more disturbing, the Nevada State Athletic Commission seemed ready to let the fight go on.
There’s always the chance that I’m wrong, but like I said, I’m more inclined to believe the first set of doctors who treated and diagnosed Aldo then anyone else in this situation.
All this because Jose Aldo has dared to speak his mind on the issue of fighter pay, and because the UFC thinks that it can sell more PPVs with Dana’s newest butt-buddy Conor McGregor than with Jose Aldo.
Just remember that Aldo will be back, more motivated than ever. Men with massive facial scars don’t generally scare easily.
Preceding the Mendes/McGregor circus will be the only real title fight on the card, and I’m super-stoked. Robbie Lawler defends his welterweight title against Rory MacDonald in what promises to be a barn-burner. Lawler’s long journey to the top is one of my favorite storylines in modern MMA. A gritty knockout artist, Lawler has increased his technical prowess with each successive fight, including two brutal 25 minute battles with former champion Johny Hendricks. MacDonald makes up for the disparity in power with his reach and his technical ability, but was beaten by Lawler last time in a split decision. Both fighters have grown and evolved since then, and I’m looking forward to seeing what each brings to the table the second time around. MacDonald will be fighting to bring a title back to the Great White North, while Lawler will be fighting to hold on to what has taken him so long to obtain.
Both of these men also fought and won on the UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga card, the very first card ever covered by Rabbit Punch Sports blog back in July of 2013. Almost two years later, these men will collide for the welterweight belt. At the time, I also praised MacDonald’s technical ability and Lawler’s power. Tonight, Rory will have to show greater offensive output, while Robbie will have to neutralize and counter Rory’s game plan.
As always, you can get at Kevin J on Twitter @KevJMahon during the main card.
Keep your hands up and defend yourself at all times, and enjoy the fights tonight with us here at Rabbit Punch!
I am personally thrilled with the switch. McGregor has advanced mainly through the strength of his promotability, and has never even fought a top 5 fighter on his way to the belt. Conor is a gifted striker, but so far he has only knocked down guys who were set up for him. If he can beat an iron-chinned wrestler like Mendes, then he will have proved that he deserves to be in the cage with Aldo.
If Mendes wins, however, it will be a nightmare for the UFC. They will have lost much of the heat that they built up for the eventual Aldo/McGregor fight, and there is little interest among fans in seeing Mendes fight Aldo a third time. The kicker is that Mendes may have an even better chance against McGregor than Aldo did. Aldo is a Muay Thai specialist who will engage with Conor on the feet, while Mendes will be looking to stifle his opponent’s offense and dominate him with superior wrestling. Add to this the fact that Chad Mendes has only ever been finished by Jose Aldo throughout his professional career and we see that McGregor’s reach and power will be put to the test tonight.
Waiting in the wings are Frankie Edgar, who has been on a win streak since his loss to Aldo in 2013, and Ricardo Lamas, who since 2011 has lost to only Aldo and Mendes.
Noticing a pattern? Jose Aldo has not only already beaten the top talent in his weight class, he has also gone undefeated since 2005 for a total of 18 wins in a row. Aldo is undefeated in the UFC, having come over with the WEC lightweight belt around his waist. In the UFC, Aldo has defended once or twice per year, and defends on average more than most current UFC champions.
Which is why it is so backwards and wrong that the UFC is making tonight’s main event an interim title match. The decision is based off of promotional concerns and personal issues, without any semblance of integrity or fairness. This encapsulates the way that the UFC has handled this fight from the start.
The UFC has spent too many resources on promoting this fight to pull McGregor, or to water down the main event. That’s fine, but an interim title is completely inappropriate in this situation. Jose Aldo has defended his title within the last 12 months, and will return from his injury along a predictable timeline. No interim title was created when TJ Dillashaw dropped out of the Barao rematch with a broken rib, and his last title defense came two months before Aldo’s.
The way that the UFC handled Aldo’s injury was most troubling of all. The UFC did not call off the fight after doctors diagnosed the broken rib via CAT scan. Instead, UFC President Dana White insisted that Aldo had suffered a cartilage bruise, and that Aldo would still fight. The champion seemed ready to go along at first, but a few day later the announcement came from Aldo’s camp that Jose was dropping the fight due to a broken rib. Mendes was called up on about two weeks notice.
White continues to insist that Aldo’s rib is not broken, but I’m inclined to believe that the first set of doctors got their diagnosis right the first time. A broken rib is not hard to diagnose, especially with a sophisticated medical scan such as a CAT scan. A bruise is not easily mistaken for a break on medical imaging, because a bruise is diagnosed in the absence of evidence of a break. If the first set of doctors saw a break on CAT scan, then there was and is a break. An x-ray alone could have told you this. Dana is famous for shooting off his mouth, but this time he’s screwing with a fighter’s health and professional reputation. Even more disturbing, the Nevada State Athletic Commission seemed ready to let the fight go on.
There’s always the chance that I’m wrong, but like I said, I’m more inclined to believe the first set of doctors who treated and diagnosed Aldo then anyone else in this situation.
All this because Jose Aldo has dared to speak his mind on the issue of fighter pay, and because the UFC thinks that it can sell more PPVs with Dana’s newest butt-buddy Conor McGregor than with Jose Aldo.
Just remember that Aldo will be back, more motivated than ever. Men with massive facial scars don’t generally scare easily.
Preceding the Mendes/McGregor circus will be the only real title fight on the card, and I’m super-stoked. Robbie Lawler defends his welterweight title against Rory MacDonald in what promises to be a barn-burner. Lawler’s long journey to the top is one of my favorite storylines in modern MMA. A gritty knockout artist, Lawler has increased his technical prowess with each successive fight, including two brutal 25 minute battles with former champion Johny Hendricks. MacDonald makes up for the disparity in power with his reach and his technical ability, but was beaten by Lawler last time in a split decision. Both fighters have grown and evolved since then, and I’m looking forward to seeing what each brings to the table the second time around. MacDonald will be fighting to bring a title back to the Great White North, while Lawler will be fighting to hold on to what has taken him so long to obtain.
Both of these men also fought and won on the UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga card, the very first card ever covered by Rabbit Punch Sports blog back in July of 2013. Almost two years later, these men will collide for the welterweight belt. At the time, I also praised MacDonald’s technical ability and Lawler’s power. Tonight, Rory will have to show greater offensive output, while Robbie will have to neutralize and counter Rory’s game plan.
As always, you can get at Kevin J on Twitter @KevJMahon during the main card.
Keep your hands up and defend yourself at all times, and enjoy the fights tonight with us here at Rabbit Punch!
Saturday, May 23, 2015
UFC 187 #JonJones #AndStill #ChampionInExile
Despite losing two of its biggest PPV draws, tonight’s UFC 187 should still do good numbers. The media hasn’t been paying much attention, but Chris Weidman is still defending his title against Vitor Belfort. I expect Weidman to get the job done against the veteran Belfort in what promises to be an exciting fight. Vitor looked undersized compared to Weidman at the weigh-ins, and I don’t think that he’ll be able to stop the champ from bullying him around the ring. Vitor’s best strategy will be to pressure Weidman early with strikes, but Weidman’s footwork and angles tend to frustrate opponents. Too much respect for the takedown will play right into Weidman’s game plan. He will probe the holes in Vitor’s game for a round or two, then pick him apart. I’m definitely a Weidman booster, and look forward to see him defend against the top-tier fighters at Middleweight, such as Luke Rockhold and Jacare.
Also on the card is a #1 contender match dressed up as a title fight, as Anthony “Rumble” Johnson takes on Daniel Cormier. Cormier’s last outing was a frustrating loss to champion Jon “Bones” Jones, who was suspended and stripped of his title after a series of high-profile controversies, most recently a hit-and-run in his hometown of Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Now, when I heard “hit-and-run,” I naturally thought that Jones and driven off after causing an accident, but no, this fool jumped out of his rental car and fled the scene on foot, returning to grab a wad of cash from his glove box before jumping a fence and disappearing for about 36 hours. He left his marijuana and pipe in the car.
Two other vehicles were involved in the crash after Jones ran a red light, one of which contained a pregnant woman. When she was sent to the hospital as a precaution, it was discovered that she had broken a bone in her arm. This injury raised the misdemeanor charge into a felony. Jones turned himself in late the next evening, and was released on $2,500 bail.
The reaction on social media was immediate and fierce. Many pointed out that this was not Jones’ first brush with controversy. He wrapped his car around a tree and plead guilty to a DUI just two years ago in 2012. In 2014, he was involved in a fight in the MGM lobby after being shoved by Daniel Cormier at a promotional stare-down. In the lead up to that same fight, Jones tested positive for cocaine metabolites on an out-of-competition drug test. He avoided official sanction due to the fact that cocaine is not banned out of competition, and should not have been screened for in that particular blood test. Public sentiment, however, swung strongly against the Light Heavyweight champ as Jones’ many detractors seized upon each incident to criticize him on social media.
The UFC can and should act to protect it’s interests in this case. They feel that their perceived permissiveness with Jones has hurt their brand, as does Jones’ negative publicity. Additionally, it disrupts the UFC’s planning and promotion when they don’t know if one of their champions will soon be doing jail time.
None of this changes the fact that Jon Jones is the pound-for-pound best fighter in the UFC today, and we the fans don’t get to see Anthony Johnson get his chance to disprove that. It’s not fair to us, and it’s not fair to Johnson, who had the best chance of beating Jones to date. No one is a better mixed martial artist than Jones, but Johnson has enough power and technique in his striking game to put the lights out on Jones, who has notoriously weak boxing fundamentals. As often as Cormier tagged Jones in their last fight, Johnson would need far fewer strikes to end Jones’ night and become the new Light Heavyweight champion. Even if Johnson wins tonight, he will have missed out on the opportunity to take the title from Jones, and all the haters out there miss the chance to see Jones knocked out. If Cormier wins tonight, we will know for sure that he is not the best. If Johnson wins, we’ll have no way of knowing.
Additionally, I have always felt that an athlete's performance on the field is separate from the rest of their lives. Mind you, Jones should get no preferential treatment. He will have his day in court, and the justice system will apply punishment. Nor to I let him off the hook morally. If you are involved in an accident, especially if you cause it, you stay and see if you can render aid. You call an ambulance. You give a statement to the police. When Jones ran he wasn't just being stupid, he was being selfish and irresponsible. However, I still don’t think that any of us should get fired for things that happen outside the office, including star athletes. I also don't think that outsiders should feel entitled to draw sweeping conclusions or pop off at the mouth when someone they don't know fucks up.
The kicker is that I think Johnson had a better chance against Jones than he does against Cormier. If Johnson’s cardio and his defensive wrestling hold up tonight, he can take it by ko. If Cormier can bully and wear him out, the fight will be his, most likely inside 5.
As for the rest of the card:
Rose Namajunas over Nina Ansaroff by sub. (EDIT: Canceled)
Uriah Hall over Rafael Natal by. . .ko/tko.
Dong Hyun Kim by decision if Kim fights smart, Josh Burkman by ko/tko if Kim fights fun.
John Dodson over Zach Makovsky by ko/tko.
Joseph Benavidez over John Moraga by decision.
Travis Browne over Andrei Arlovski by ko/tko, maybe?
Cowboy Cerrone hurts John Makdessi before locking in the sub. Khabib Nurmagomedov was supposed to fight Cowboy tonight, but pulled out due to injury. We the fans were robbed of seeing the Eagle soar and the UFC was robbed of their #1 contender match, but I have a feeling that Cowboy may have been saved from an ugly loss.
Follow along tonight with @KevJMahon on Twitter.
Keep your hands up and defend yourself at all times, and we’ll see you next time here at Rabbit Punch!
Also on the card is a #1 contender match dressed up as a title fight, as Anthony “Rumble” Johnson takes on Daniel Cormier. Cormier’s last outing was a frustrating loss to champion Jon “Bones” Jones, who was suspended and stripped of his title after a series of high-profile controversies, most recently a hit-and-run in his hometown of Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Now, when I heard “hit-and-run,” I naturally thought that Jones and driven off after causing an accident, but no, this fool jumped out of his rental car and fled the scene on foot, returning to grab a wad of cash from his glove box before jumping a fence and disappearing for about 36 hours. He left his marijuana and pipe in the car.
Two other vehicles were involved in the crash after Jones ran a red light, one of which contained a pregnant woman. When she was sent to the hospital as a precaution, it was discovered that she had broken a bone in her arm. This injury raised the misdemeanor charge into a felony. Jones turned himself in late the next evening, and was released on $2,500 bail.
The reaction on social media was immediate and fierce. Many pointed out that this was not Jones’ first brush with controversy. He wrapped his car around a tree and plead guilty to a DUI just two years ago in 2012. In 2014, he was involved in a fight in the MGM lobby after being shoved by Daniel Cormier at a promotional stare-down. In the lead up to that same fight, Jones tested positive for cocaine metabolites on an out-of-competition drug test. He avoided official sanction due to the fact that cocaine is not banned out of competition, and should not have been screened for in that particular blood test. Public sentiment, however, swung strongly against the Light Heavyweight champ as Jones’ many detractors seized upon each incident to criticize him on social media.
The UFC can and should act to protect it’s interests in this case. They feel that their perceived permissiveness with Jones has hurt their brand, as does Jones’ negative publicity. Additionally, it disrupts the UFC’s planning and promotion when they don’t know if one of their champions will soon be doing jail time.
None of this changes the fact that Jon Jones is the pound-for-pound best fighter in the UFC today, and we the fans don’t get to see Anthony Johnson get his chance to disprove that. It’s not fair to us, and it’s not fair to Johnson, who had the best chance of beating Jones to date. No one is a better mixed martial artist than Jones, but Johnson has enough power and technique in his striking game to put the lights out on Jones, who has notoriously weak boxing fundamentals. As often as Cormier tagged Jones in their last fight, Johnson would need far fewer strikes to end Jones’ night and become the new Light Heavyweight champion. Even if Johnson wins tonight, he will have missed out on the opportunity to take the title from Jones, and all the haters out there miss the chance to see Jones knocked out. If Cormier wins tonight, we will know for sure that he is not the best. If Johnson wins, we’ll have no way of knowing.
Additionally, I have always felt that an athlete's performance on the field is separate from the rest of their lives. Mind you, Jones should get no preferential treatment. He will have his day in court, and the justice system will apply punishment. Nor to I let him off the hook morally. If you are involved in an accident, especially if you cause it, you stay and see if you can render aid. You call an ambulance. You give a statement to the police. When Jones ran he wasn't just being stupid, he was being selfish and irresponsible. However, I still don’t think that any of us should get fired for things that happen outside the office, including star athletes. I also don't think that outsiders should feel entitled to draw sweeping conclusions or pop off at the mouth when someone they don't know fucks up.
The kicker is that I think Johnson had a better chance against Jones than he does against Cormier. If Johnson’s cardio and his defensive wrestling hold up tonight, he can take it by ko. If Cormier can bully and wear him out, the fight will be his, most likely inside 5.
As for the rest of the card:
Rose Namajunas over Nina Ansaroff by sub. (EDIT: Canceled)
Uriah Hall over Rafael Natal by. . .ko/tko.
Dong Hyun Kim by decision if Kim fights smart, Josh Burkman by ko/tko if Kim fights fun.
John Dodson over Zach Makovsky by ko/tko.
Joseph Benavidez over John Moraga by decision.
Travis Browne over Andrei Arlovski by ko/tko, maybe?
Cowboy Cerrone hurts John Makdessi before locking in the sub. Khabib Nurmagomedov was supposed to fight Cowboy tonight, but pulled out due to injury. We the fans were robbed of seeing the Eagle soar and the UFC was robbed of their #1 contender match, but I have a feeling that Cowboy may have been saved from an ugly loss.
Follow along tonight with @KevJMahon on Twitter.
Keep your hands up and defend yourself at all times, and we’ll see you next time here at Rabbit Punch!
Saturday, May 2, 2015
Is There A Fight On Tonight?
We all know what day it is. And you know what? I don't care.
I've been intentionally silent on this fight because I just don't care. Four years ago I would have been all over it, but today I just can't summon up any give-a-shit. Mayweather ducked Pacquiao for years, and is only fighting now because he feel like Pacman has slowed down. I really don't feel like indulging the shenanigans both men have engaged in. I don't blame Team Money for trying to hold onto the tactical advantage, but it does no favors for Floyd's legacy. As a fan of both fighters, I'm saying "fuck off" to this fight. Tell me how it went in the morning.
Bottom line, I'm pulling for Pacquiao, calling for Mayweather, and watching the Derby.
I've been intentionally silent on this fight because I just don't care. Four years ago I would have been all over it, but today I just can't summon up any give-a-shit. Mayweather ducked Pacquiao for years, and is only fighting now because he feel like Pacman has slowed down. I really don't feel like indulging the shenanigans both men have engaged in. I don't blame Team Money for trying to hold onto the tactical advantage, but it does no favors for Floyd's legacy. As a fan of both fighters, I'm saying "fuck off" to this fight. Tell me how it went in the morning.
Bottom line, I'm pulling for Pacquiao, calling for Mayweather, and watching the Derby.
Saturday, April 18, 2015
UFC On Fox: Machida Versus Rockhold
Things we learned about mma since the last time we posted; Joanna Jedrzejczyk can at times channel Chuck Liddell, RDA is an even more terrifying monster than we all thought, you don’t boo Al Iaquinta unless you're ready for some of that East Coast attitude, and you’re allowed to bring a hatchet into the Octagon so long as you disguise it as Mirko Cro Cop’s elbows.
Tonight, however, we take that ride across the river to the Jersey side as the UFC returns to Newark, NJ in a night of prospects versus veterans. Many of the up-and-coming fighters on this card will be facing their toughest tests yet as the more established crop will seek to show that they can still mix it up with the young go-hards invading the ranks of every division.
I’m predicting a 4-2 split in favor of the prospects (the veteran versus prospect fights being defined here as Mizugaki versus Sterling, Saint Preux versus Cummins, Miller versus Dariush, Herrig versus VanZant, Swanson versus Holloway, and Machida versus Rockhold). No matter which way they go I’m looking forward to tough, competitive fights from bottom to top.
Starting at the bottom, I expect Aljamain Sterling to get it done against Takeya Mizugaki by decision. I like Sterling because he shows better fight IQ than most prospects. Along with his athleticism and offensive ability, this should be enough to overcome the superior experience of Mizugaki. That being said, this is a definite test for the Longo-Serra student, and a very dangerous fight.
Not much to say about the next fight. Anderson should be able to take advantage of Villante’s notoriously bad striking defense, as well as bully him in the clinch. Anderson by decision.
Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) versus Patrick Cummins is a little more complicated to call. While Cummins should be about to get the fight to the ground and control St. Preux once he’s there, OSP has has shown an aptitude for landing low-percentage maneuvers with great success. Too bad he doesn’t show the same aptitude for bread-and-butter striking and wrestling. Hard to call, but I’ll go with Cummins by decision.
I’m a little more confident in picking Beneil Dariush over Jim Miller, but not by much. You don’t get to be a stalwart of the Lightweight division for as long as Jim Miller has unless you are one seriously bad mofo. Miller is one of the toughest men in the Ocatagon, but Beneil Dariush is a serial killer on a rampage. Between his highly effective boxing and submission game I expect Dariush to get the finish, or if not, to carry away a decision victory.
Moving up to the main card, the momentum shifts slightly towards the veterans.
WCL veteran Felice Herrig is like the Michael Bisping of the Women’s Strawweight division; a jack off all trades, ace of none. She can hit you with hard clean shots on the feet, but probably won’t know you out. She can dominate in the clinch or smother you out on the mat, and she’ll lay some ground-n-pound on you, but again, she probably won’t stop the fight. At this point in her career, I don’t think that the still-raw Paige VanZant has the skills to get past her. Herrig by decision.
The next fight should be a barn-burner, as Cub Swanson takes on Max Halloway. Both fighters have an aggressive style, and both have the ability to put a quick hurting on their opponents. Expect a tough, gritty bloodbath, with Swanson just barely edging out Halloway. High potential for a finish.
Also, “Jacare” Souza will most likely finish Chris Camozzi again. On less than two weeks notice, there is nothing to make me think that Camozzi will do any better this time than he did the last time. I’m still bitter that we lost Yoel Romero in this fight.
The main event is a coin flip every time, as far as I’m concerned, as well as a definite Fight of the Year contender. I’ve been looking forward to this one ever since it was announced, so instead of straining to put every possible thought and angle down on paper, I’m just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy a high-level martial arts contest between two of my favorite fighters.
As usual, you can chill with @KevJMahon via twitter during the fights.
Hands up, protect yourself at all times, don’t you fucking dare boo us here at Rabbit Punch!
Tonight, however, we take that ride across the river to the Jersey side as the UFC returns to Newark, NJ in a night of prospects versus veterans. Many of the up-and-coming fighters on this card will be facing their toughest tests yet as the more established crop will seek to show that they can still mix it up with the young go-hards invading the ranks of every division.
I’m predicting a 4-2 split in favor of the prospects (the veteran versus prospect fights being defined here as Mizugaki versus Sterling, Saint Preux versus Cummins, Miller versus Dariush, Herrig versus VanZant, Swanson versus Holloway, and Machida versus Rockhold). No matter which way they go I’m looking forward to tough, competitive fights from bottom to top.
Starting at the bottom, I expect Aljamain Sterling to get it done against Takeya Mizugaki by decision. I like Sterling because he shows better fight IQ than most prospects. Along with his athleticism and offensive ability, this should be enough to overcome the superior experience of Mizugaki. That being said, this is a definite test for the Longo-Serra student, and a very dangerous fight.
Not much to say about the next fight. Anderson should be able to take advantage of Villante’s notoriously bad striking defense, as well as bully him in the clinch. Anderson by decision.
Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) versus Patrick Cummins is a little more complicated to call. While Cummins should be about to get the fight to the ground and control St. Preux once he’s there, OSP has has shown an aptitude for landing low-percentage maneuvers with great success. Too bad he doesn’t show the same aptitude for bread-and-butter striking and wrestling. Hard to call, but I’ll go with Cummins by decision.
I’m a little more confident in picking Beneil Dariush over Jim Miller, but not by much. You don’t get to be a stalwart of the Lightweight division for as long as Jim Miller has unless you are one seriously bad mofo. Miller is one of the toughest men in the Ocatagon, but Beneil Dariush is a serial killer on a rampage. Between his highly effective boxing and submission game I expect Dariush to get the finish, or if not, to carry away a decision victory.
Moving up to the main card, the momentum shifts slightly towards the veterans.
WCL veteran Felice Herrig is like the Michael Bisping of the Women’s Strawweight division; a jack off all trades, ace of none. She can hit you with hard clean shots on the feet, but probably won’t know you out. She can dominate in the clinch or smother you out on the mat, and she’ll lay some ground-n-pound on you, but again, she probably won’t stop the fight. At this point in her career, I don’t think that the still-raw Paige VanZant has the skills to get past her. Herrig by decision.
The next fight should be a barn-burner, as Cub Swanson takes on Max Halloway. Both fighters have an aggressive style, and both have the ability to put a quick hurting on their opponents. Expect a tough, gritty bloodbath, with Swanson just barely edging out Halloway. High potential for a finish.
Also, “Jacare” Souza will most likely finish Chris Camozzi again. On less than two weeks notice, there is nothing to make me think that Camozzi will do any better this time than he did the last time. I’m still bitter that we lost Yoel Romero in this fight.
The main event is a coin flip every time, as far as I’m concerned, as well as a definite Fight of the Year contender. I’ve been looking forward to this one ever since it was announced, so instead of straining to put every possible thought and angle down on paper, I’m just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy a high-level martial arts contest between two of my favorite fighters.
As usual, you can chill with @KevJMahon via twitter during the fights.
Hands up, protect yourself at all times, don’t you fucking dare boo us here at Rabbit Punch!
Saturday, March 14, 2015
UFC 185 Main Card Preview
We’re just hours away from UFC 185 main card. The favorites all look good, of course, but the underdogs are coming hard tonight. Kevin J will be kickin’ it on twitter during the fights, and he just wants to kick it, just wants to kick it with you @KevJMahon.
Headlining the undercard are Ross Pearson (-430) and Sam “Hand of Stone” Stout (+380). I have my concerns about Stout’s chin after more than 30 professional fights, but the octagon veteran still has the power to stop Pearson.
Now that Henry Cejudo (-750) has made weight and looked good doing it, Chris Cariaso (+600) is going to have his work cut out for him in the first bout of the main card. I’m liking Cejudo to get the win almost as much as everyone else is, so maybe place a small bet on Cariaso at 6-to-1 and don’t expect to get it back.
Moving on, Alistair Overeem (-145) is the more technically skilled attacker, but his suspect chin leaves him open to Big Country’s (+135) heavy hands. Expect a short affair, one way or the other.
Johny Hendricks (-425) is hungry for a chance to get his title back, but he may run into a roadblock in Matt Brown (+378). Brown is one of the toughest men in the UFC, having never been knocked out in 31 pro fights. If it comes down to technique, give it to Hendricks, but if it comes down to heart, Brown could come away with it. Both men have a heavy-handed style, so expect a slugfest.
The first title fight of the evening pits challenger Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+130) against champion Carla Esparza (-150). I think that Carla is much more dominant here than the oddsmakers are giving her credit for. There’s no doubt that Joanna has been bringing the heat in the pre-fight leadup, but if there’s one thing that we know about the champ, it’s that she’s a serious scrapper. Expect an intense, competitive fight, but also expect Jedrzejczyk to be put through the woodchipper by the end of it.
Topping off the main card is the Lightweight title bout between challenger Rafael Dos Anjos (+450) and champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (-525). Dos Anjos had evolved into an absolute monster, and is more of a threat than the odds reflect. All the same, Pretty Tony is one of the most dynamic and offensively gifted fighters that the 155lbs weightclass has ever seen.
Don’t get it twisted, I’m picking the favorites across the board tonight, but I’m also calling for at least 2 upsets tonight between the main card and the Pearson/Stout fight.
If you’re brave, RDA and Matt Brown could make you money tonight. Otherwise, just throw your favorite favorites into a parley or two. Don’t forget about Duffey and li’l Pettis on the prelims.
Keep your hands up, protect yourself at all times, and come back next time for the next Rabbit Punch!
Above odds from 5Dimes as reported by bestfightodds.com at the time this article was posted
Headlining the undercard are Ross Pearson (-430) and Sam “Hand of Stone” Stout (+380). I have my concerns about Stout’s chin after more than 30 professional fights, but the octagon veteran still has the power to stop Pearson.
Now that Henry Cejudo (-750) has made weight and looked good doing it, Chris Cariaso (+600) is going to have his work cut out for him in the first bout of the main card. I’m liking Cejudo to get the win almost as much as everyone else is, so maybe place a small bet on Cariaso at 6-to-1 and don’t expect to get it back.
Moving on, Alistair Overeem (-145) is the more technically skilled attacker, but his suspect chin leaves him open to Big Country’s (+135) heavy hands. Expect a short affair, one way or the other.
Johny Hendricks (-425) is hungry for a chance to get his title back, but he may run into a roadblock in Matt Brown (+378). Brown is one of the toughest men in the UFC, having never been knocked out in 31 pro fights. If it comes down to technique, give it to Hendricks, but if it comes down to heart, Brown could come away with it. Both men have a heavy-handed style, so expect a slugfest.
The first title fight of the evening pits challenger Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+130) against champion Carla Esparza (-150). I think that Carla is much more dominant here than the oddsmakers are giving her credit for. There’s no doubt that Joanna has been bringing the heat in the pre-fight leadup, but if there’s one thing that we know about the champ, it’s that she’s a serious scrapper. Expect an intense, competitive fight, but also expect Jedrzejczyk to be put through the woodchipper by the end of it.
Topping off the main card is the Lightweight title bout between challenger Rafael Dos Anjos (+450) and champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (-525). Dos Anjos had evolved into an absolute monster, and is more of a threat than the odds reflect. All the same, Pretty Tony is one of the most dynamic and offensively gifted fighters that the 155lbs weightclass has ever seen.
Don’t get it twisted, I’m picking the favorites across the board tonight, but I’m also calling for at least 2 upsets tonight between the main card and the Pearson/Stout fight.
If you’re brave, RDA and Matt Brown could make you money tonight. Otherwise, just throw your favorite favorites into a parley or two. Don’t forget about Duffey and li’l Pettis on the prelims.
Keep your hands up, protect yourself at all times, and come back next time for the next Rabbit Punch!
Above odds from 5Dimes as reported by bestfightodds.com at the time this article was posted
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